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May 7th, 2013 – USD/CAD, EUR/USD, USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, GBP/USD

USD/JPY – currently trading @ 98.96

Bias: Bullish-Neutral

UJ(34)

Levels:

Upside
99.788
Range
95.97899.788
Downside
95.978
Positions
YES  Open New Long Position  YES  Add To Existing Long Position  NO Open Short Position
NO Add To Existing Short Position

Click HERE for the list of our trades in April

No positions

Commentary:

USD/JPY is trading within the 95.97899.788 range. The range is wide because 98.944 level was taken our recently.

No changes in outlook. The bias is Bullish-Neutral. The pair has very strong daily and weekly charts, but future outlook remains unclear, due to important upside barrier.

We have to give the benefit of the doubt to the bulls at the moment, because they have momentum going. USD/JPY is probably will be testing our upper band 99.788 in near future.

We want to make our strategy clear: USD/JPY will need to break 99.788 with conviction. That would mean to actually break the level of 100. For now, the only way for us to enter the trade, is for the pair not only to break 100, but also hold the gains. After that we will be looking to enter long position on a pullback. Be patient, this is is the best way to trade this pair right now.

Economic events that can influence direction:

Date

Time

Event

Currency

Tue May 7

19:00

USD Consumer Credit

USD

Thu May 9

5:00

JPY Leading Index

JPY

Thu May 9

12:30

USD Initial Jobless Claims

USD

Thu May 9

14:00

USD Wholesale Inventories

USD

Thu May 9

23:50

JPY Trade Balance – BOP Basis (Yen)

JPY

Thu May 9

23:50

JPY Bank Lending incl Trusts (YoY)

JPY

Fri May 10

4:30

JPY Bankruptcies (YoY)

JPY

Fri May 10

5:00

JPY Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook

JPY

Fri May 10

13:30

Fed Speaks at Chicago Fed Conference

USD

Fri May 10

18:00

USD Monthly Budget Statement

USD

EUR/USD – currently trading @ 1.3086

Bias: Bearish-Neutral

EU(34)

Levels:

Upside
1.32486
Range
1.30009- 1.32486
Downside
1.28655
Positions
NO Open New Long Position
NO Add To Existing Long Position
YES  Open Short Position  YES  Add To Existing Short Position 

Click HERE for the list of our trades in April

April 25th, 2013 – Entered short position @ 1.3049 – 1/3(targeting 1.28655)

May 1st, 2013 – Added to short position @ 1.3209 – 1/3 ( total position 2/3 – 1.3129 average)

May 2nd, 2013 – Exited short position @ 1.3065 – PL: +64 pips profit

May 2nd, 2013 – Opened new short position @ 1.3120 – ( position size = 2/3)

May 7th, 2013 – Closed all positions @ 1.3082 - PL: +38 pips profit

Commentary:

EUR/USD is trading within a new 1.30009- 1.32486 range. The 1.3201 level was taken out recently.

Yesterday we mentioned that our stop is 1.3248, and our target is 1.28655 for our short position we’ve entered @ 1.3120. We notified you on Twitter in the morning that we decided to close our positions @1.3082.

The situation is unclear with this pair, and we decided to protect the profits. We will be monitoring EUR/USD, and will notify you when the new trade setup develops.

Economic events that can influence direction:

Date

Time

Event

Currency

Tue May 7

10:00

EUR German Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY)

EUR

Tue May 7

19:00

USD Consumer Credit

USD

Wed May 8

10:00

EUR German Industrial Production (YoY)

EUR

Thu May 9

8:00

EUR ECB Publishes Monthly Report

EUR

Thu May 9

12:30

USD Initial Jobless Claims

USD

Thu May 9

14:00

USD Wholesale Inventories

USD

Fri May 10

6:00

EUR German Trade Balance (euros)

EUR

Fri May 10

13:30

Fed Speaks at Chicago Fed Conference

USD

Fri May 10

18:00

USD Monthly Budget Statement

USD

USD/CAD – currently trading @ 1.0049

Bias: Bearish-Neutral

UC(36)

Levels:

Upside
1.01663
Range
1.00604 – 1.01663
Downside
1.00136
Positions
NO Open New Long Position
NO Add To Existing Long Position
YES  Open Short Position  YES  Add To Existing Short Position 

Click HERE for the list of our trades in April

No positions

Commentary:

We changed our Bias to Bearish-Neutral from Neutral. The pair is trading within the 1.00604 – 1.01663 range.

Yesterday we wrote: “If you are short 1.00136 support is probably a good level to take profits. The pair is not rallying up enough to give us a good short entry. We mentioned previously that we wanted to start shorting @1.01406, and add @1.01663. Unfortunately USD/CAD only climbed up to 1.0131, and we didn’t initiate positions. We want to see how the pair reacts @1.00604 level of support. If the pair bounces off this level again, this could be an important support that will lead to a rebound in a coming week.”

We think that if you are short USD/CAD, it will be a good time to cover. It’s very likely that USD/CAD is bottoming at these levels, and can start moving up from here.

Economic events that can influence direction:

Date

Time

Event

Currency

Tue May 7

19:00

USD Consumer Credit

USD

Wed May 8

12:15

CAD Housing Starts

CAD

Thu May 9

12:30

CAD New Housing Price Index (YoY)

CAD

Thu May 9

12:30

USD Initial Jobless Claims

USD

Thu May 9

14:00

USD Wholesale Inventories

USD

Fri May 10

12:30

CAD Net Change in Employment

CAD

Fri May 10

12:30

CAD Unemployment Rate

CAD

Fri May 10

12:30

Full Time Employment Change

CAD

Fri May 10

13:30

Fed Speaks at Chicago Fed Conference

USD

Fri May 10

18:00

USD Monthly Budget Statement

USD

GBP/USD – currently trading @ 1.5473

Bias: Bearish-Neutral

GU(31)

Levels:

Upside
1.5644
Range
1.53744 - 1.5644
Downside
1.53744
Positions
NO Open New Long Position
NO Add To Existing Long Position
YES  Open Short Position  YES  Add To Existing Short Position 

Click HERE for the list of our trades in April

Still hold a small position (short @ 1.5250)

May 1st, 2013 – Added to short position @1.5590 (Total Position size = 2/3, 1.5505 average)

May 7, 2013 – Took profits and sold half of our short position @1.5461 PL: +44 pips profit

Still holding a small position

Commentary:

No change in bias or outlook. The bias is still Bearish – Neutral. The pair is trading within the 1.53744 - 1.5644 range.

Just yesterday we cited that it takes a long time for our trade to work out. We took profits and covered half of our short position today @1.5461.

GBP/USD is probably going to bounce here, but not much. There is a lot of momentum on the downside, and it broken through some key levels. Even though we took some profits on our short position today, we continue to hold a small short position to reach our target @1.53744.

Economic events that can influence direction:

Date

Time

Event

Currency

Tue May 7

10:00

EUR German Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY)

EUR

Tue May 7

19:00

USD Consumer Credit

USD

Wed May 8

10:00

EUR German Industrial Production (YoY)

EUR

Thu May 9

8:00

EUR ECB Publishes Monthly Report

EUR

Thu May 9

8:30

GBP Industrial Production (YoY)

GBP

Thu May 9

8:30

GBP Manufacturing Production (YoY)

GBP

Thu May 9

11:00

GBP Bank of England Rate Decision

GBP

Thu May 9

11:00

GBP BOE Asset Purchase Target

GBP

Thu May 9

12:30

USD Initial Jobless Claims

USD

Thu May 9

14:00

NIESR Gross Domestic Product Estimate

GBP

Thu May 9

14:00

USD Wholesale Inventories

USD

Fri May 10 G7 , Central Bank Chiefs meeting

GBP

Fri May 10

6:00

EUR German Trade Balance (euros)

EUR

Fri May 10

8:30

GBP Construction Output (YoY)

GBP

Fri May 10

8:30

GBP Visible Trade Balance (Pounds)

GBP

Fri May 10

13:30

Fed Speaks at Chicago Fed Conference

USD

Fri May 10

18:00

USD Monthly Budget Statement

USD

EUR/JPY – currently trading @ 129.50

Bias: Neutral

EJ(34)

Levels:

Upside
130.90
Range
126.955130.90
Downside
125.015
Positions
NO Open New Long Position
NO Add To Existing Long Position
NO Open Short Position
NO Add To Existing Short Position

Click HERE for the list of our trades in April

No positions

Commentary:

Our bias is Neutral. EUR/JPY is trading within the 126.955130.90 range.

It’s obvious that EUR/JPY is waiting for the resolution on USD/JPY’s ability to challenge the barrier of 100. At this point support @ 125.015 provides a good buying opportunity.

The pair is trading in a wedge pattern, and we are looking for a break one way or another. This pair is poised for a big move. The recent action also suggests that this move can be quick and violent. If we have to pick the direction of this move, it will probably be the the upside.

We are waiting on the sidelines until the next trend develops.

Economic events that can influence direction:

Date

Time

Event

Currency

Tue May 7

10:00

EUR German Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY)

EUR

Tue May 7

19:00

USD Consumer Credit

USD

Wed May 8

10:00

EUR German Industrial Production (YoY)

EUR

Thu May 9

5:00

JPY Leading Index

JPY

Thu May 9

8:00

EUR ECB Publishes Monthly Report

EUR

Thu May 9

12:30

USD Initial Jobless Claims

USD

Thu May 9

14:00

USD Wholesale Inventories

USD

Thu May 9

23:50

JPY Trade Balance – BOP Basis (Yen)

JPY

Thu May 9

23:50

JPY Bank Lending incl Trusts (YoY)

JPY

Fri May 10

4:30

JPY Bankruptcies (YoY)

JPY

Fri May 10

5:00

JPY Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook

JPY

Fri May 10

6:00

EUR German Trade Balance (euros)

EUR

Fri May 10

13:30

Fed Speaks at Chicago Fed Conference

USD

Fri May 10

18:00

USD Monthly Budget Statement

USD

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